The Big Short Series. Navigating Dubai’s Property Market Episode 1

From long-term rentals to property sales and the growing influence of off-plan developments, Gregory Lewis teams up with Louis Bowers in AirDXB’s new series, 'The Big Short' together, they break down the data, facts and figures that no one else is talking about. With declining long-term rental demand, shrinking sales volume and an off-plan market dominating the landscape with 64% in March 2025, what does this mean for investors?

Long-Term Rentals

Long-term rentals in Dubai are experiencing a significant downturn with numbers plummeting over the past year. According to Property Monitor, rental units totaled 51,957 in January 2024 but by April 2025, that figure had dropped to just 29,057 a staggering 44% decrease in just 16 months.

Despite brief moments of recovery such as October 2024, the overall trend remains downward. One of the most alarming declines occurred between March and April 2025, with rental numbers falling by 23% in just one month from 37,883 to 29,057.

This sharp drop reveals major flaws in long-term rentals: fixed pricing, extended vacancy periods, and an inability to adjust to rapid market changes. Meanwhile, short-term rentals in Dubai, such as those available with AirDXB offer dynamic pricing, capitalize on high-demand seasons and maximize returns per unit.

The data speaks for itself Dubai short-term rentals provide greater control, flexibility, and increased earning potential in an evolving market.

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Sales Volume: Total Sales Transactions

The Dubai real estate market is witnessing a significant shift with transaction volumes experiencing a 26% decline over the last six months according to Property Monitor as seen in the graph below. This drop is largely attributed to increasing caution among buyers as ready properties yield lower ROI, making investors hesitant to commit to purchases.

A key indicator of this shift is the 64% share of off-plan transactions in March 2025 according to DXB Interact. This indicates a growing preference among buyers for short-term investment strategies, with a focus on 'property flipping' for profit rather than acquiring secondary properties for long-term ownership and stable returns. The reduced interest in ready properties has led to fewer overall sales, reinforcing the arguement that demand is shifting towards off-plan investments rather than traditional ownership.

While the year-on-year performance appears strong, a closer look at month-on-month and quarter-on-quarter trends reveals concerning patterns. For instance, transaction volume declined by -5.65% from February 2025 to March 2025, signaling a slowdown in immediate market activity.

The data highlights a realignment of investor priorities, with the Dubai real estate landscape increasingly favoring short-term, profit-driven strategies over conventional property ownership. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this trend persists or if adjustments in pricing and ROI opportunities stabilize market confidence.

With 300,000 new units set to enter the market by 2028, the increased supply adds another layer of uncertainty. Investors must stay agile, adapting to evolving trends while balancing risk and opportunity in a rapidly changing landscape. Dubai's real estate market is undergoing a profound shift, driven by declining long-term rental demand, shrinking sales volumes and the dominance of off-plan investments speak to a short-let advisor today to explore how short-term rentals can support your investment strategy.

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