Dubai Real Estate Is Turning Red — The Great Slowdown Begins | The Big Short Episode 6

In Episode 6 of The Big Short, we dig beneath the headlines to see what’s really happening in Dubai’s real estate market.

• Prices are cooling across key communities
• Resale values dropping in apartments and villas
• Long-term rentals turning negative
• “Record sales” versus real transaction value
• A massive supply wave hitting the market
• Why 2025 warning signs are now 2026 reality

Using verified data from Property Monitor, REIDIN, Knight Frank, Espace, Betterhomes and more, this episode strips away the hype. No sales spin. No sugar-coating. Just real numbers and trends.

Market Insights

Property Monitor COO Zhann Jochinke describes the current market as a shift from “acceleration to absorption.” Prices are cooling, volumes remain strong, and supply is expanding rapidly – clear signs of a market moving into absorption mode.

Property Monitor December 2025 Report:

• Dynamic Price Index: –0.17% in December after –0.42% in November (AED 1,673/sq ft)
• Quarter-on-quarter: –0.46%

AirDXB Q4 2025 Report:

• Q3 → Q4 transaction volumes: –3.4%
• Two-year Q4 comparison: volume –74%, value –25%

Resale Market Reality
According to REIDIN’s Debt and Rebirth Report, reported 2025 resale values included AED 20.3B in gift transfers and double-counted mortgages. After corrections, actual resale sales totalled AED 126.46B – 42.7% lower than reported.

Long-Term Rentals
Property Monitor shows year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter declines in contracts and renewals:

• Q3 → Q4 2025: Total –4.9%, Renewal –8.3%
• Q4 2024 → Q4 2025: Total –5.7%, New –4.3%, Renewal –6.61%

Takeem’s Rental Report 2025 confirms tenants are staying put, but affordability pressure is rising:

• Total contracts: –17.8% YoY
• New contracts: –9.45% YoY
• Renewals: –22.17% YoY

The Takeaway
Dubai’s property market is shifting. Cooling prices, softening transactions and a surge in supply are reshaping the landscape. For a full breakdown, watch the video above or download our data report for detailed insights.

If you question the numbers, the research speaks for itself.

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Primary Reports & Articles Dubai Real Estate Market in 2026: A Shift Toward Balance– Dubai Chronicle – market normalisation narrative with Sterling Capital Real Estate insight

👉 https://www.dubaichronicle.com/2025/12/28/dubai-real-estate-market-in-2026-a-shift/Property Monitor – Monthly Market Report: December 2025– Prices ease, off-plan share rises to 73.3%, volumes, resale counts, and launch data

👉 https://propertymonitor.com/insights/monthly-market-report/monthly-market-report-december-2025 Dubai Residential Market Report – H2 2025– Espace Real Estate insights on sales volume, values, and transaction trends

👉 https://www.espace.ae/latest-property-news-detail/dubai-residential-market-report-h2-2025REIDIN – UAE Residential Property Price Report: December 2025– REIDIN’s price index data for December 2025 (used for rental & per-sqft insights)

👉 https://reidin.com/uae-residential-property-price-report-december-2025/REIDIN – Dubai Residential Project Launch Tracker: December 2025– Launch pricing, unit mix, and December launch volume & pricing data

👉 https://reidin.com/dubai-residential-project-launch-tracker-december-2025/

📍 LinkedIn & Social Media Insights (Industry Voices) Zhann Jochinke – Property Monitor LinkedIn Post– Market transition from acceleration to absorption, pricing and volume context

👉 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/zhann_property-monitor-monthly-market-report-activity-7418883662043090944-bOTC

📍 Additional Contextual Sources (Optional / Extended)Dubai Real Estate Market Outlook 2026 (Sterling Capital Real Estate)– Outlook commentary on maturity and stability ahead

👉 https://sterlingcapital.realestate/dubai-real-estate-market-outlook/Construction Week — Market Analysis– Additional narrative about Dubai property trends into 2026

👉 https://www.constructionweekonline.com/analysis/dubai-property-market-2026